Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 11.654923 13.623943 15.778926 18.306476 21.183432 24.349665 28.091349
2024-11-03 9.063226 11.860108 15.224765 19.541225 24.899203 31.296475 39.474138
2024-11-10 7.194540 10.386262 14.550515 20.310102 27.986339 37.771508 51.078854
2024-11-17 5.905533 9.295488 14.041786 21.041499 30.942912 44.263118 63.310211
2024-11-24 4.725412 8.064372 13.054375 20.855467 32.493895 48.911818 73.435913
2024-12-01 3.705292 6.835810 11.814294 20.035031 32.918042 51.895420 81.380528
2024-12-08 2.966307 5.891487 10.822277 19.385988 33.421364 54.916976 89.505707
2024-12-15 2.522995 5.356832 10.389242 19.528257 35.103710 59.773436 100.677982
2024-12-22 2.103585 4.774325 9.768133 19.241256 36.007720 63.431931 110.216470
2024-12-29 1.919794 4.610403 9.863938 20.197068 39.062218 70.738254 126.034486
2025-01-05 1.696611 4.317634 9.665786 20.575577 41.120194 76.522857 139.740355
2025-01-12 1.481870 3.997142 9.359490 20.698137 42.705758 81.594537 152.567745
2025-01-19 1.290703 3.698841 9.070149 20.851652 44.428830 87.155335 166.847249
2025-01-26 1.231774 3.708861 9.439841 22.385130 48.929040 97.999994 191.103076
2025-02-02 1.131297 3.592518 9.513671 23.311216 52.335051 107.119048 212.924636
2025-02-09 1.036436 3.469418 9.551637 24.160471 55.659393 116.315845 235.469288
2025-02-16 0.892976 3.176061 9.138844 23.959502 56.812235 121.500129 250.986834
2025-02-23 0.735520 2.798336 8.451423 23.035720 56.344991 123.515696 260.696292
2025-03-02 0.612379 2.489819 7.882118 22.303019 56.194159 126.105314 271.614152
2025-03-09 0.542538 2.335243 7.693671 22.464437 58.016449 132.746501 290.738527
2025-03-16 0.465224 2.131374 7.331553 22.139965 58.701535 137.101856 305.613781
2025-03-23 0.441492 2.116157 7.507720 23.221004 62.721908 148.622981 335.407816
2025-03-30 0.400889 2.024521 7.441079 23.648896 65.231805 157.101864 359.479213